In light of the most recent developments in Bolivia, the picture accompanying the post below may no longer seem particularly appropriate. For a brief summary of events, see a not particularly informative BBC article here (and note that the absence of reporting on these events in other major media outlets, such as the NYT and Washington Post, is unfortunate). Although Bolivia has become skilled at teetering on the precipice of utter disarray and pulling back at the last moment, the current situation looks rather bleak. The government-aligned faction's decision to ram through its version of a new constitution by changing the assembly's voting rules and eschewing debate - or even a full reading of the new charter, according to most accounts - will only detract from the document's legitimacy. The opposition, for its part, is seeking to embrace its role as the victim (as described in this IPS article), but it is hardly blameless, having used the Sucre-as-capital and other issues to obstruct a forum in which it lacks a majority.
Both sides in the Bolivian conflict are suffering from a legitimacy problem. For MAS party/government/President Morales supporters, the old political class - a number of whose members are still present in the ranks of the opposition - is responsible for Bolivia's current poverty and historical exclusion of the indigenous from politics, and is now hoping to hold on its privileges despite President Morales' sweeping victory in 2005. Add in the obstructive tactics - which have at times been understandable but have certainly irritated MAS supporters - and the factors for a legitimacy issue are present. For the opposition, the government's attempt to impose a radically different system of government upon an area (the autonomy-hungry eastern lowlands) that has been the country's economic engine breeds resentment, and the manner in which the constitution has now been approved provides evidence for why the government cannot be entrusted with forging a "new" Bolivia.
International reaction, such as that of the UN, the State Dept., and Spain, has appropriately urged the two sides to step back, as they have done several times in the past four years. However, the Constituent Assembly has been acting as a magnifier of Bolivia's ever-simmering internal conflicts, and with strikes set for large portions of the country on Wednesday there is fear that situation could get worse yet. For ongoing information and analysis, the blogs linked to in the post below provide good coverage from different perspectives.
Two other quick notes: 1) Despite the tragic deaths in Sucre, the government's restrained response should be noted, especially in comparison to past government reactions to large-scale mobilizations. 2) Attacks on journalists, which have occurred in Bolivia during other protests throughout the year, have again been a problem in recent days. Regardless of how the current unrest shakes out, both sides in Bolivia, but particularly President Morales, should publicly emphasize that attacks on journalists are unacceptable.
