Several developments regarding elections in the fragile states evaluated by Countries at the Crossroads have occurred within the last week. Actual elections occurred in two countries. On Sunday, Thailand held parliamentary elections, with the party of banned former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra winning a plurality of seats (with the help of the electoral system designed by the military itself!) and soon declaring that it had successfully forged a coalition government and would also welcome Thaksin's return to Thailand. This carries substantial risks, as Thaksin’s increasingly personalized rule had led to severe polarization by the time of his ouster in September 2006. Nonetheless, he clearly remains popular, and his supporters announced their intention to put out quite a nice welcome mat:
The leader of the [victorious] People Power Party, Samak Sundaravej, who openly calls himself a stand-in for Mr. Thaksin, said he might declare an amnesty for Mr. Thaksin and his allies, opening the door for a full revival of his political machine. Mr. Samak also said he might dissolve the Asset Examination Committee that had been investigating corruption charges against Mr. Thaksin.
Kenyan presidential and parliamentary elections were held on Thursday. By all appearances, challenger Raila Odinga has defeated incumbent Mwai Kibaki. Should the results hold, it is difficult to overstate the magnitude of this outcome: peaceful transitions between elected heads of state remain all too rare in sub-Saharan Africa. An article in the New York Times prior to the election noted that the features of Kenya’s electoral system complicate the contest, but should Odinga’s early lead of 57% hold up it seems unlikely that his candidacy will get snagged by any of the system’s features. Moreover, in what can only be deemed a further censure of the Kibaki government, the country’s vice-president and a raft of ministers were also relieved of their parliamentary seats. However, with the sensitive issue of tribalism clearly contributing to the election results, any new government will have to quickly demonstrate its commitment to governing on behalf of all Kenyans or tensions could quickly rise.
Meanwhile, critical agreements were reached in Nepal that will abolish the monarchy and allow elections for a constitutional assembly to proceed by mid-April. Less than two weeks ago the International Crisis Group warned of the dangers posed by a faltering process (perhaps the Nepali parties wished to rebuke those tut-tutting Westerners). Not all details have yet emerged regarding the format of the elections, but the agreement to abolish the monarchy will mark a fundamental shift in Nepali history.
In Zimbabwe, the opposition has agreed to unify behind longtime leader Morgan Tsvangirai for the March presidential election. Of course, the chances that President Robert Mugabe would ever allow himself or his party to lose are minimal. Far more likely is a continuation of the ruinous and repressive policies that have sadly become routine in Zimbabwe over the last decade.
And last but not least, elections were finally called in Angola, a mere 15 years after the previous set (civil war provided the ruling MPLA with a handy, if not airtight, excuse for intransigence until 2002). The contest will not occur until September, there are many details still to be determined, and the MPLA remains the dominant party, but it still could mark a major step for a country that suffered through a protracted civil war and is now viewed as a test case for democratization in a resource-rich state.
One thing to note is that while all of these developments are positive in the strict sense that elections (if relatively free and fair) are one of democracy’s forms, the situation in most of the aforementioned countries will remain unstable regardless of the result. The quality of governance in important areas has been poor in each case, from human rights abuses in Thailand and Nepal to corruption in Angola and Kenya to the entire range of policy in Zimbabwe. For governance quality to improve in any of them, reforms will have to take on powerful vested interests. While cautious optimism is in order as 2008 dawns, each of these stories must certainly be categorized as “to be continued.”
Photograph by Evelyn Hockstein for the New York Times
