The post immediately below clearly requires some updating with respect to the election results in Kenya. As readers are undoubtedly aware, a tragedy is now unfolding as supporters of “defeated” candidate Raila Odinga (not that Odinga necessarily won, but given the close outcome and the reports of fraud there is no way of knowing) riot and battle with Kenyan authorities and members of President Mwai Kibaki’s Kikuyu tribe. The most complete coverage can be found at the BBC website. Particularly interesting is the article about tribalism, which gives some background to the current disaster and emphasizes that African politicians can be all too quick to resort to tribalism-based demagoguery when they perceive it to be to their electoral benefit (this happens in other areas too, of course, but the extremely multiethnic character of many African countries and tensions over scarce resources make the region particularly vulnerable).
On some level one has to wonder what Kibaki is thinking. Though his government is viewed as somewhat underperforming on governance issues (especially regarding equal treatment of citizens from all tribes), Kenya has generally remained stable in comparison with many of its neighbors. Kibaki is considered an intelligent leader, and had to know that victory in such a tainted election would spell trouble for his reputation and, more importantly, his country. The obvious answer to why victory was declared is a fear of losing the privileges that accrue to government leaders, as well as concern that a new government might be inclined to cut off privileges and possibly even prosecute members of the previous regime if corruption or other misdeeds are uncovered. But the blood of hundreds of dead Kenyans is now on the government’s (and partially on Mr. Odinga’s - see his statement in this article) hands. How could that be worth it? One suspects that a psychologist might be more useful than a political scientist in explaining such behavior.
Picture found at the BBC website (scroll to bottom of article)
UPDATE: For another good discussion of the context and potential repercussions of the current upheaval, please see this Dec. 31 Newshour transcript featuring Countries at the Crossroads Africa adviser and CSIS fellow Joel Barkan.
