 |
 | ||
 |
|
||
 |
 |
|
| |
|
|
 |
 |
 |
 |
 | |
 |
 |
 |
Elections are coming to Pakistan. However, many doubts remain, not only within Pakistan but also internationally, as to the fairness and the transparency of these elections. President Musharraf has dismissed and put under house arrest many members of the judiciary, including prominent Supreme Court justices that were about to rule his recent reelection as president invalid. It has only been a few months since emergency rule was lifted and even less time since the leader of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) opposition party, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated. Pakistani political parties often act as mere support bases for personalist leaders. Before Bhutto’s assassination she dominated the PPP, just as former prime minister Nawaz Sharif controls the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and President Musharraf lords over the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q). The fact that the political system is unable to generate new leadership and must resort to ex prime ministers, who are usually clouded by suspicions of corruption during their time in office, is one of the primary factors associated with Pakistan’s deep stagnation in matters of governance across the board.
The Pakistani government is a federal parliamentary democracy featuring a bicameral legislature. In the February 18th election the public will vote for the National Assembly, parliament’s lower house. There are a total of 342 seats, with 272 seats voted on directly (first-past-the-post), while sixty are reserved for women and ten for non-Muslim minorities. Those seats are allocated by proportional representation for all parties that receive more then five percent of the total votes for open seats. The technical importance of these elections is that the party that wins the majority of the seats is able to select the prime minister. However, the president holds discretionary power to dissolve the National Assembly with the approval of the Supreme Court. In essence, Musharraf still holds a trump card. Therefore the elections are seen by many more as a chance to express disapproval of the president rather than actually take government in a wholly new direction.
Pakistan is at a crucial juncture; recent polls have ranged widely in attempting to gauge the public’s feeling towards the election. The general consensus is that Musharraf’s popularity has hit an all time low. With all of the mounting problems, citizens have lost faith in Musharraf’s ability to properly manage the myriad governance challenges facing the country. According to the International Republican Institute’s newly released Pakistan Index, Musharraf’s approval rating is just 15 percent, with 75 percent believing that he should resign and only 8 percent believing that he is best suited to handle the problems facing Pakistan. What appears to be the final straw is the faltering economy. The same poll showed that 55 percent mentioned inflation as their top concern, followed by 15 percent for unemployment. Combined with other severe deficiencies in terms of security and democratic rights, such numbers bode poorly for Musharraf.
The major question is whether two or more opposition parties will win enough seats and then band together to garner the 2/3 majority necessary to oust Musharraf. A recent estimate by a Pakistani political website predicts that the PPP should win 29 percent of the seats in the National Assembly and the PML-N could win 30 percent, which would be a combined 59 percent, quite close to the 66 percent needed to impeach the president. Even if Musharraf’s PML-Q party is able to retain a majority, his legitimacy has fallen to such a degree that it is hard to imagine him successfully leading Pakistan out of its current malaise. The one name to emerge from the IRI index is Mahkdoom Amin Fahim. He is the Vice-Chairman of Pakistan People’s Party and is seen as a possible replacement for the Chairmanship of the PPP. In the IRI index he is rated as the best candidate who could handle Pakistan’s problems at 32 percent, above Nawaz Sharif with 23 percent.
On the other side is Tariq Azim Khan, the PML-Q spokesperson, who said he was confident that the party would “reap the benefits of incumbency” (in the Washington Post's ironic wording) and thus retain the majority within the assembly. While such factors as name recognition and organization provide structural advantage to incumbent parties and candidates, barely anyone doubts the existence of manifold maneuverings by the government. The most obvious area is that of the judiciary, where Musharraf has jailed opposition justices and replaced them with compliant ones who have sworn allegiance to his government. By dismissing a majority of the Supreme Court justices, Musharraf has been able to not only stack the court in his favor but the election commission as well. Any election irregularities are looked into and ruled on by the Supreme Court. Such are the “benefits of incumbency.”
Still, even the PML-Q realizes that Musharraf has become a liability and is adapting its campaign strategy accordingly. The party has removed Musharraf from any ads and has been reaching back towards Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Pakistan’s founder, to consolidate their support by linking their current mission of service to Pakistan to that of the “Great Leader” years ago. But such a comparison may simply remind Pakistanis of the profound shortcomings of the present regime.
Photo Credit: Flickr user groundreporter
