Zimbabwe is swirling with pre-election intrigue as high-level defections from the ruling party signal what is potentially the strongest challenge in years to the autocratic rule of 83 year-old President Robert Mugabe. Political developments in Harare have accelerated since February 5th, when former Finance Minister Simba Makoni, 57, declared his intention to run for president in elections scheduled for March 29th.
“Lion King” analogies aside, Simba Makoni’s announcement has widened an internal rift within the ruling Zanu-PF party, as forces once loyal to Mugabe continue to dissociate themselves from the economic ruin sowed by his 28-year reign and defect to the opposition. As Zimbabwe observer Isaac Dziya has noted, “The effects of the economic situation do not cushion even the diehard supporters of Mugabe. Everyone is suffering just like everyone else in the country and this includes Zanu-PF supporters right across the country.” In recent days, several Zanu-PF stalwarts have broken from the party, including current Minister of Finance Dr. Samuel Mbengegwi. Both Makoni and Mbengegwi hail from the Masvingo province, a traditional base of support for Mugabe and the Zanu-PF. Upon announcing his candidacy as an independent, Makoni was swiftly expelled from the party, and analysts predict a similar fate for party members openly opposing Mugabe in the run-up to the elections.
The emergence of Makoni has given new hope to forces within Zimbabwe seeking Mugabe’s ouster. The former finance minister is considered in Harare to be a reform-oriented technocrat whose image is not besmirched by corruption allegations. Makoni may represent the best hope for breaking Mugabe’s stranglehold on democracy, and Western governments are placing bets on the opportunity presented by this election cycle. Mugabe’s press machine recently noted British overtures to “cause regime change in Zimbabwe,” as the UK has contributed £3.3 million to pro-democracy NGOs, including anti-government lawyers and opposition elements. On his tour of Africa, President Bush blasted Mugabe as a “discredited dictator” and continued to pledge support for freedom in Zimbabwe, though past efforts have all been resounding failures.
While Mugabe’s political bases may be eroding ahead of the elections, Makoni’s challenge faces an uphill battle. As the Economist notes, the opposition in Zimbabwe lies in shambles, as the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – the political party long at the forefront of the anti-Mugabe campaign – has yet to overcome an acrimonious split following its refusal to participate in the 2005 parliamentary elections. Furthermore, Mugabe continues to exploit all administrative levers to shore up his base of support, redirecting the flow of fuel and foodstuffs, already in short supply, to political patrons.
Moreover, some Africa observers are less sanguine about Makoni, who has served in Mugabe’s cabinet since the country declared independence in 1980 but only recently has raised his voice in opposition to his political benefactor.
Makoni’s success will depend upon his ability to unite the splintered opposition and continue to attract members of the ruling Zanu-PF disillusioned with Mugabe’s rule. For his part, Makoni is aware of the grave danger in challenging Mugabe through the ballot box and called on his opponents to settle their political disputes peacefully in a “contest of ideas, a contest of vision and commitment to the people.” Zimbabwe continues to rank as one of the least democratic nations in the world analyzed in Freedom House’s Countries at the Crossroads report, and few believe the vote will occur without incident. In the positive scenario, as March 29th approaches observers inside Zimbabwe and without will be feverishly speculating whether this presidential election will truly present a unique moment to break Mugabe’s iron grip of this failed state. Just as likely, sadly, is that Mugabe will turn the screws and the contest will represent one more missed opportunity for Zimbabwe.
Photo Credit: Flickr user Candlemaker
