The March 14th parliamentary ballot in Iran promises to fall well short of meeting standards for free and fair elections – Tehran received a paltry score of 1.75 out of 7 along this metric in the 2007 Countries at the Crossroads survey. However, competition for the 290-seat majlis has been intense and not without intrigue, making the results of the quadrennial elections difficult to predict. The stakes are high in the contest, as the election is viewed by Iran observers as a critical referendum on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s ruling mandate and a preview of 2009 presidential elections.
As The Economist observes, the parliamentary campaign has evolved into a battle between hard-line conservative supporters of Ahmadinejad and more pragmatic conservatives that have become disillusioned with certain policies of the president. Ahmadinejad was swept into power in 2005 on a populist platform which promised a more equitable distribution of Iran’s oil revenues, but thus far the economic record of his campaign remains mixed. While record prices for energy resources have enhanced government coffers, inflation remains stubborn at nearly 20 percent.
Under more normal circumstances, sharp price increases might have provided a tailwind of support to more moderate elements in Iran advocating for reforms; however, the Guardian Council – a body of hard-line clerics that vets candidates for their loyalty to the revolution – has prohibited over 1,700 predominantly reform-oriented candidates from appearing on the ballot. Since its decision in January to limit competition, the Council has since backtracked and overturned the bans of over 800 candidates, including the grandson of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Still, the exclusion of reformist candidates from races for nearly 200 of the 290 seats in the majlis has left more moderate Iranians seething about the government’s anti-competitive behavior.
As Reuters notes, the Iranian hardliners have further exerted control over the political process by banishing campaign posters, an unusual move even by Tehran’s standards. In a race with over 7,000 candidates vying for 290 seats in a nation where there are no political parties, campaign posters are a critical publicity tool for branding candidates. Reformers view this measure as another tactic to diminish the visibility of a political opposition that is already constrained by conservative domination of state media outlets. Other instruments of state power are also being wielded to squeeze the moderate opposition. A recent report published by a conservative American think tank, the American Enterprise Institute, warns of Iran “morphing into a military regime backed by theocratic principles,” as the feared elite Revolutionary Guards are becoming increasingly involved in domestic politics and are even administering the elections.
Interestingly, as the BBC notes, 600 of the candidates in the elections are women, part of a growing women’s movement in Iran that is gaining momentum (note: Iran scored a 1.75 out of 7 in Gender Equality in the Countries at the Crossroads 2007 report). However, while the female vote was critical to the election of reform-minded former President Mohammed Khatami for two terms, it appears highly unlikely that women voters will tip the scale against Ahmadinejad, given the limited number of seats for which reformists are being permitted to run.
While the parliamentary elections in Iran are neither free nor fair by any reasonable standard, the competition between rival conservative factions has been fierce. By mishandling the economy and taking an overly aggressive stance toward the U.S., Ahmadinejad has alienated much of his conservative base, with a rival power base now coalescing around former chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and Tehran Mayor Muhammad Qalibaf. Although a hardliner triumph is all but assured in the parliamentary elections, pundits are looking to the ballot to provide clues about Iran’s political course in the medium term. Moreover, the ballot will test the strength of conservatives’ support for Ahmadinejad – if factions loyal to the President do not fare as well as expected, pragmatic conservative rivals will receive a boost heading into the 2009 presidential elections. Ahmadinejad will be up for reelection, so the implications of such an outcome are subtle yet potentially far-reaching, and eyes around the world will be focused on detecting any slight policy shifts in Tehran following the March 14th ballot.
Photo Credit: Flickr user Daniella Zalcman
