Although it is no longer any secret that the loosening of Egyptian politics that seemed tantalizingly close just a few years ago has all but disappeared, the last few weeks have been particularly troubled.
The most obvious problem in the past several months has been the protests and riots experienced in numerous towns and cities over inflation, low wages, and, in particular, galloping bread prices. Egyptians have long been reliant on subsidized bread to counteract low wages, and the corruption of the subsidy system is legendary. But as wheat prices have spiraled upward, the system appears to have cracked. Not only have there been protests directly linked to the prices, but demands for wage increases to cope with food inflation have led to strikes, including one in the city of Mahalla al-Kobra that left two dead and over 150 wounded.
In this context several other developments have passed nearly unnoticed. Elections for local councils were held on April 8. Turnout was abysmal, the Muslim Brotherhood was harassed and its candidates barred to the point that it eventually called for a boycott, and voting in Mahalla al-Kobra was actually canceled due to the violence described above. While this is unsurprising given the course of Egyptian electoral backsliding described in the 2007 Countries at the Crossroads report, it nonetheless reaffirms the Mubarak regime’s lack of intent to provide any substantive opening, especially as regards Muslim Brotherhood participation in politics.
Speaking of the Brotherhood, a military court has convicted 25 of its members and handed out prison sentences of up to 10 years. As Human Rights Watch notes, the judicial procedures are unacceptable, especially the fact that the trials were held in a military rather than a civil court. In another appalling governance development, Human Rights Watch also recently noted the ongoing crackdown against HIV-positive Egyptians, who are being arrested and convicted on charges of “debauchery,” with numerous norms of medical practice and confidentiality being violated in the meantime.
If there is any silver lining in this fearsome cloud, it is that average Egyptians are standing up to protest against the government in greater numbers, using new technologies, and with determination that their problems actually be addressed. The reason Egyptian citizens are generally considered somewhat apolitical is that they are so used to the government denying them any sort of democratic voice. But the Achilles heel of such closed regimes is that they must either provide a minimum of protection against backsliding standards of living or repress dissent with ever greater force. In the short term, it appears that repression will be the Mubarak government’s favored tool. Over the coming months, however, the government may face no choice but to undertake some sort of reform or the pressures could rise even further.
Photo credit: Flickr user Mohamed Ali Eddin
