End of the Road for Paraguay's Colorados?

Less than a week remains before Paraguay goes to the polls for what is expected to be one of the closest elections the country has ever seen. The Colorado party has now been in power for sixty-one solid years, thirty-five of which (1954-1989) came under the iron-fisted rule of Alfredo Stroessner. While the degree of autocracy has eased since he was forced from office, the Colorado party remains a model of clientelism and Paraguayan institutions remain extremely weak.

Current President Nicanor Duarte’s legacy will be mixed. On the one hand, as the 2007 Countries at the Crossroads report details, he did make some concrete achievements in the fight against corruption. However, many necessary procedural and policy reforms were not made, and despite some GDP growth little headway was made in closing the yawning gap between rich and poor. In a recent poll, only 5 percent of Paraguayans categorized Duarte’s performance as “good” or “very good;” a group of citizens even banded together to buy Duarte a one-way plane ticket to Spain. In addition, the regional Latinobarometro citizen survey regularly shows Paraguayans to have little faith in democracy as the best way to solve their problems.

Thus, the desire for change is real, and Fernando Lugo appears to be the candidate most serious about bringing it. A former bishop, Lugo has led most polls since confirming his candidacy. He talks often about land reform, an issue that has in the past been associated with the radical left in Latin America, giving his opponents an opening to claim that he will align Paraguay with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez. However, in interviews and speeches, Lugo speaks calmly about both the good and the bad elements he sees in Venezuela. Indeed, he has more often spoken of Chile’s ruling Concertacion party as a model than of Chavez or any of the region’s other left-of-center administrations.

The presidential race has not lacked for drama. In mid-2007 General Lino Oviedo, a convicted coup-monger who has often stated his presidential ambitions, was released from prison in a move that led many to accuse the Colorados of trying to split the opposition. However, Oviedo’s support has remained at less than 30 percent in recent months and his chances of victory in the first-past-the-post race appear slim. The Colorados, meanwhile, went through a bitter and prolonged primary battle that weakened the eventual winner, Blanca Ovelar, who is considered the “establishment” candidate. But as the Colorados have mobilized their electoral machinery, she has been gaining in the polls to achieve a near-tie with Lugo.

An extremely close race could lead to difficulties once the polls close. The Electoral Council’s impartiality has already come under question, and there is little doubt that the Paraguayan judiciary remains one of the region’s most politicized. If the results show a close Colorado win, tensions could quickly rise. But no matter what happens, change in Paraguay is likely to be highly incremental at best.

Photo of Fernando Lugo from Flickr user Fernando Lugo APC