Bolivia is rapidly approaching one of the most potentially divisive days in its recent history. On Sunday May 4, residents of Santa Cruz department, physically the nation's largest and economically its most productive, go to the polls to vote in a referendum on whether the department will grant itself autonomy. The government position, broadly shared by many observers, is that the referendum has no legal basis; the opposition's riposte, as described by the Washington Post, is that the government forfeited its right to define legality with any real authority when it bent the rules in order to pass Bolivia's draft constitution. The biggest fear is that there will be violence between government and opposition supporters, despite the fact that President Evo Morales has requested that his supporters not march to Santa Cruz as originally planned. A number of stories provide good background on this story, including the Economist, which makes the important point that the issues between the government and opposition should theoretically be resolvable; the Andean Information Network, which takes a dim view of the referendum's legitimacy; the Democracy Center, which describes what the referendum could mean going forward; Open Democracy, which provides some extremely helpful historical context; and the Miami Herald.
Colombia has in recent weeks witnessed critical new developments on an almost daily basis, many of them related to the "parapolitica" scandal that has shaken the country by revealing politicians' ties with right-wing paramilitaries. With fully 63 members of congress under arrest or investigation, calls have grown for some type of political reform that would resolve the legitimacy crisis currently facing the body. Also contributing to political uncertainty in Colombia is the possibility that President Alvaro Uribe, buoyed by his massive 84 percent approval rating, might seek a third term. Note that Uribe already successfully lobbied for a constitutional change in order to be eligible for his second term, a process that has returned to the news since one of the key legislators who voted in favor of the change has declared that she was bribed in order to assure her vote. The Miami Herald's Andres Oppenheimer, a reliable barometer of mainstream international opinion, suggests a third term is a bad idea and attempts to put Uribe on the spot in an interview. Adding yet another layer of intrigue to the situation is the fact that Alvaro's cousin Mario Uribe, with whom he is known to be quite close, was recently arrested in connection with the parapolitica scandal. Meanwhile, Amnesty International has announced its concern over a recent uptick in trade union killings, a category in which Colombia has long led the world, and the Center for International Policy has described a rash of threats against one of the country's most prominent NGOs. On a somewhat more positive note, the International Crisis Group offers suggestions for how Colombia can take advantage of the military gains it has made in recent years against the left-wing FARC rebels.
International coverage of Venezuela recently has focused on the nationalization of steel company SIDOR and, more trivially, the gripping saga regarding whether "The Simpsons" will be forced off Venezuela's airwaves. In country, however, political maneuvering is increasingly focused on the regional and local elections that will be held in November. President Hugo Chavez set up a unified pro-government party last year, but it has recently been hit by internal squabbling, most prominently including the accusation by a now-former party member that members of the Chavez clan have engaged in corruption in their home state of Barinas. The internal difficulties have given the opposition hope that more gains than previously thought possible might be on the horizon. Other recent news stories related to governance include an LA Times piece on deteriorating hospitals, a piece describing the newly created Ministry of Women's Affairs, and a piece on the creation of a "humanist" prisons that lacks some fairly important context regarding just how awful conditions in Venezuelan prisons are, such as the 498 murders recorded in 2007 alone.
Paraguay has enjoyed a rare appearance in the spotlight recently as former bishop Fernando Lugo won the country's presidential race and ended the Colorado Party's 61-year chokehold on power. International coverage has often focused on the degree to which Lugo will align his administration with Venezuela's Chavez; however, even among strong anti-Chavistas such as Peruvian commentator Alvaro Vargas Llosa there is a strong sense that the defeat of the Colorado Party is a good thing. Lugo has already shown a cautious side by bringing back former finance minister Dionisio Borda, who was credited in the Countries at the Crossroads 2007 report as being the key actor behind the modest anticorruption reforms passed during outgoing president Nicanor Duarte's term. Another article notes that Duarte, who will be in the Senate, appears to be cooperating with Lugo to coordinate an orderly transition. The Financial Times notes that Lugo is considering an offer of temporary free electricity to firms investing in Paraguay, while the Latin America blogger known as Boz provides perspective on what the Lugo victory means (a lot) and what the country might expect from his administration (not as much).
The NGO wars have returned to Peru. There is a long history of delicate and, occasionally, hostile relations between human rights groups and the Peruvian government. As described in the Countries at the Crossroads 2007 report, Alan Garcia's government in late 2006 passed new regulations governing NGO activity that were considered onerous by many domestic and international observers. Many of that law's most controversial provisions were removed by the Constitutional Tribunal, temporarily easing the strains, but the latent hostility returned full bore following the failed attempt two weeks ago by the government to get the MRTA rebel group placed on the EU's terrorist list. One cause of the failure was a letter written by the respected human rights group APRODEH, which did not in any way defend the MRTA but rather noted that the group has been inactive in recent years. Opponents of human rights groups, such as congressman Rolando Sousa, jumped on the opportunity to tar the NGO sector, expounding his views in a breathtakingly asinine Wall Street Journal article that fails to even mention that the good congressman was a longtime lawyer for former dictator Alberto Fujimori, who is now on trial for various crimes, including grave human rights abuses. Although other human rights groups were quick to distance themselves from APRODEH's letter, right-wing groups used the opportunity to declare that human rights groups were acting contrary to the interests of the Peruvian people and state. It is somewhat confusing: the Peruvian government takes pride in its international image as the "responsible" Andean state, yet it reaped a significant amount of bad publicity when the NGO law was passed and will reap bad publicity once again from these latest actions. The power of the more retrograde elements within Peruvian politics to set the agenda on this issue speaks volumes about why efforts to improve governance in the country have been frustratingly slow.
Honduras has also been the scene of several significant events. First, the leader of the nation's primary labor federation was assassinated. Then a prison riot left nine dead. Finally, a number of attorneys went on a hunger strike to demonstrate against corrupt behavior within the judiciary.
President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua was elected in 2006 with under 40 percent of the vote and with a large amount of baggage, given the country's polarized state during the previous era of Sandinista rule. One effect is that the president did not enjoy a honeymoon with the press, and relations have gone steadily downhill throughout his administration. As several articles describe, those relations have hit a new low point. Like Venezuela, Nicaragua is approaching local elections, which have caused particular problems in the northern Caribbean region of the country, which is physically large but sparsely populated. One of the exacerbating factors of conflict in the area is the devastation wrought by last fall's Hurricane Felix; as an IPS article describes, the government is currently attempting to formulate a plan to deal with what is expected to be another highly active hurricane season.
