The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) has governed Malaysia since independence from Britain in 1957, maintaining its hold on power with a blend of authoritarianism, macroeconomic growth, and race-based patronage. However, UMNO and its coalition of more than a dozen smaller parties, the National Front, suffered what may prove to be a mortal blow in the March 8 parliamentary elections, losing their two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat, the lower house of Parliament, for the first time despite control over the media and other advantages. Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi’s government now hangs on a 30-seat margin in the 222-seat chamber, and the opposition People’s Alliance, a coalition that rode to victory in five of federal Malaysia’s 13 states on a platform of racial harmony and reform, has vowed to woo away defectors. The weakened administration has already been forced to adopt elements of the opposition’s program, which could have positive and lasting effects on the country’s beleaguered institutions.
In the latest sign that Abdullah’s days in office may be numbered, a key National Front member, the tiny Sabah Progressive Party, announced plans to table a no-confidence motion on June 23. Parties based in the states of Sabah and Sarawak, on the island of Borneo, hold 54 seats in the ruling coalition, and they are seen as especially ripe for defection due to local frustrations over federal neglect, an inadequate share of royalties for oil production, and illegal immigration. It remains uncertain whether the planned motion will succeed, but People’s Alliance leader Anwar Ibrahim has predicted that he will be prime minister by September.
Meanwhile, Abdullah is being assailed by critics within UMNO, who blame him for the party’s unprecedented electoral defeat. His rivals include his long-ruling predecessor, Mahathir Mohamed (1981–2003); Mahathir’s nemesis in the contentious 1987 UMNO leadership contest, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah; and current deputy prime minister Najib Razak. However, none of these figures appear likely to rescue the party from its misfortunes.
The aging Mahathir is not seeking to reclaim his post, but he has been highly critical of the prime minister for several years. On May 19, he went so far as to resign from UMNO and urge others to follow him, but few party members appear to have done so. Mahathir’s rancor may be fueled in part by the government’s decision to investigate him and several associates for crippling infringements on judicial independence, most importantly the dismissal of six top judges in 1988. The probes were recommended by a royal commission of inquiry, set up under pressure after Anwar in September 2007 released a 2002 recording of a government-linked lawyer colluding with a senior judge on judicial appointments.
Razaleigh has stated his intention to challenge Abdullah for the UMNO leadership during party elections in December, but the septuagenarian is still resented by some insiders for his divisive 1987 challenge, and his own record is marred by banking scandals during his time as finance minister.
Abdullah recently hinted that he would eventually hand power to Najib, a party stalwart known to favor the government’s decades-old policy of granting special concessions to ethnic Malays in housing, education, employment, and public contracts. The opposition and other observers have argued that the graft-ridden system simply enriches a few well-connected Malay businessmen and feeds resentment among the ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities. In any case, a Najib premiership would be seriously undermined by scandals including the ongoing trial of his close friend, Abdul Razak Baginda, and two of his police bodyguards for the gory 2006 murder of Abdul Razak’s former paramour. In early May, a well-known online journalist was charged with sedition for accusing Najib and his wife of involvement in the crime.
Infighting aside, the greatest threat to UMNO and the National Front may be the broad consensus among opposition parties, civil society groups, and outside observers as to what must be done to salvage the country’s corrupt, politicized institutions and extend prosperity to the majority of the population. The Countries at the Crossroads 2006 report on Malaysia, the manifesto of Anwar’s multiracial People’s Justice Party (PKR), and a July 2007 statement produced by the independent Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS)—along with dozens of other organizations—all call for reforms including the creation of an independent judicial appointments commission and a police complaints and misconduct commission, the repeal of vaguely worded and politically exploited laws like the Internal Security Act and the Official Secrets Act, the removal of the Anti-Corruption Agency from the prime minister’s authority, and a policy of open bidding for government contracts. Similar or overlapping recommendations have been made in recent years by two royal commissions of inquiry, the Malaysian Bar Council, and a clean-elections alliance that mounted major protests in November 2007. Even the country’s conservative monarchy has asserted itself against the government of late, playing a prominent role in the drive for judicial independence and, in March, overruling Abdullah’s choices for chief minister in two states.
Since the elections, Abdullah has made some attempts to placate his critics and replaced nearly every cabinet minister in a reshuffle. However, it is unclear how thorough his proposed reforms will be, and each is likely to anger a faction of his power base within UMNO and the National Front. Abdullah did himself no favors with the general public this month when he raised gasoline prices some 40 percent in a bid to control government spending, about a third of which goes to fuel subsidies even after the hike. The opposition argues that profits at state-owned oil firm Petronas, whose accounts are open only to the prime minister, should be used to ease the cost of living.
As the prime minister struggles, the People’s Alliance has proceeded with its agenda in the five states it governs, opening contracts to public bidding with no ethnic preference and ordering officials to publicly declare assets, among other changes. As part of their coalition pact with Anwar’s party, the mostly Chinese Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) have attempted to avoid catering exclusively to their respective constituencies, instead emphasizing universal good-governance principles and antipoverty programs that ignore ethnicity. Even if this approach fails to draw the crucial 30 lawmakers away from the ruling coalition, it could force the government to choose between similar reforms and a gloomier path of authoritarian retrenchment.
Photo Credit: Flickr user trevino
