Guatemala Seeks Answers in a Larger Army

With no end in sight to the lawlessness plaguing Guatemala, the government has unveiled a plan to increase the army from 15,500 to 25,000 soldiers by 2010 in order to combat criminality. Given that the military is blamed for most of the killings during Guatemala’s civil war, which lasted from 1960-1996, this is a somewhat controversial proposition. However, many Guatemalans are so upset by rampant crime that they accept the need for the army’s growth and its internal deployment.

Guatemala has been affected by war and its turbulent aftermath for so long that violence has become a structural social element. As noted, the army’s role in past atrocities and the involvement of former and current officers in contemporary criminal activities breed wariness among citizens. Indeed, this mistrust helped Álvaro Colom, “a gawky policy wonk and businessman who made fighting poverty his campaign’s centerpiece,” win the November 2007 presidential election over Otto Pérez Molina, a former general who promised to fight crime with a “mano dura” (firm hand).

As noted in the 2006 Countries at the Crossroads report, violence is hardly Guatemala’s sole governance shortcoming. Election complications, social exclusion, and deficiencies in women’s rights exist, while corruption remains endemic. The justice system is dysfunctional, with inadequate judicial personnel and poor prison conditions. These problems promote impunity and reinforce the culture of violence. The frequent human rights abuses committed by state security forces contribute to this as well. The Colom administration is generally considered to be committed to improving Guatemalan governance, but the magnitude of the country’s problems and the government’s less than robust political capital mean that there will be no quick change in fortunes.

Guatemala’s long, brutal civil war left 200,000 dead or disappeared, along with deep scars. Human Rights Watch notes that a UN-sponsored commission attributed most killings to the government, but there have been serious hurdles in holding the guilty to account. Judges, prosecutors and investigators have insufficient resources and, like witnesses, are regularly threatened. Moreover, the army does not fully cooperate in investigations. The result is continued impunity for rights abusers.

The failures of justice hold true for everyday crimes as well. The murder rate rose dramatically from 1999 to 2007 and is now one of the highest in a violent region, while the conviction rate, though slowly improving, remains low. The youth gangs known as “maras” account for an increasing share of the mayhem. Prisons are filled with gang members but only serve to strengthen connections, while growing numbers of girls are drawn into gangs.

Politicians, journalists, human rights defenders and labor activists must deal with threats and violence, often linked to clandestine organizations associated with both the security forces and organized crime. NGOs led by the Washington Office on Latin America and Human Rights First have publicly expressed concerns to the Guatemalan government about attacks on human rights defenders and trade union members.

One dramatic positive step taken to combat crime was the 2007 initiation of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala, which is known by its Spanish acronym, CICIG. CICIG is a joint project of the UN and Guatemala to investigate and promote prosecution of the criminal and violent organizations which have links to the state. CICIG has been slow to get off the ground, and it has limited powers and duration, but observers hope the commission will be able to spotlight important cases, have positive effects on the justice system, and help restore trust in the judiciary and police.

Colom must confront Guatemala’s violence, but he will have to walk a delicate line.  Security improvements are a fundamental base for addressing underlying economic and governance problems. Economic growth, so badly needed, will be hard to achieve if businesses are afraid to invest in the country. Moreover, basic security for citizens and civil society members is required to have any semblance of a functioning democracy. The impulse to call out the army is understandable – an increasing number of Latin American countries have carried out similar internal deployments. But especially in a country with a history like Guatemala’s, with a long history of violence and abuse against the very people the state is supposed to serve, such a move should be seen as a stopgap measure that will be in effect only until institutions are improved.

Photo Credit: Flickr user Surizar

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