Following their well-publicized post-electoral meltdowns, Zimbabwe and Kenya are working through tricky governance issues involving power-sharing among multiple, mutually suspicious political parties. These situations are important to monitor as sub-Saharan Africa has all too rarely seen harmonious transitions even when the handover of power is straightforward, let alone when it involves powerful personalities and deep grievances. Ideally, these nations will succeed in peacefully distributing authority among the stakeholders, but the fragility of the processes is severe.
In Zimbabwe, President Robert Mugabe is continuing power-sharing talks with Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Talks are being led by South African President Thabo Mbeki and have been occurring on and off for over eight weeks. While the parties express optimism that they are near an agreement, Mugabe continues to use sharp tactics, stubbornness, and force to resist the opposition’s attempts to obtain its quotient of power.
However, Mugabe has been weakened by Zimbabwe’s economic crisis, as well as the internal and foreign pressures that have been brought to bear on him throughout the year. In the March 2008 parliamentary elections, the MDC won more seats than Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party, and the MDC declared that Tsvangirai had won the presidency. Mugabe and his supporters did not accept that result and forced a run-off election in June 2008, which Mugabe won after Tsvangirai boycotted due to widespread violence and intimidation.
Aside from the torrent of international criticism, Mugabe has suffered recent embarrassments in parliament. When the parliament elected in March convened for the first time in August, Lovemore Moyo, chair of the MDC, was voted speaker over Mugabe’s candidate. Mugabe even faced hecklers, an affront not often ventured during his 28 years of power.
Nonetheless, the chance of improved governance is highly doubtful absent Mugabe’s final departure from power. For one thing, he is not ready to cede control of the security forces, some of whom act as his primary goons. Most independent newspapers have been shut down, though bloggers and cyberactivists have filled the information vacuum (at least, for the few locals that have access to the internet). The country still suffers from hyperinflation and chronic, severe shortages of basic staples. Indeed, the UN and aid agencies warn of widespread starvation and a collapsing sanitation system. In a half-step of progress, the government recently removed a ban on aid agencies that was instituted before the June 27 presidential run-off election because of supposed agency support for the MDC. However, relief NGOs face strict operating procedures, and pro-democracy organizations remain banned.
Kenya similarly faces an uncertain future, although in relation to the turmoil of early 2008, and certainly in comparison to Zimbabwe, the country is faring better. In January and February, the country faced massive post-election violence (over 1,500 people killed and 300,000 displaced). Despite myriad denunciations of voting irregularities, Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) declared himself the winner of the December 2007 election. After the challenger, Raila Odinga and his Orange Democratic Movement, cried foul, Kofi Annan and the African Union stepped in to work with the feuding parties. Eventually a fragile but functioning coalition government was formed, with Kibaki as president and Odinga holding the newly created position of prime minister.
However, both current circumstances and structural conditions give major pause. The awkward power-sharing arrangement has held together, if barely, but tourism, a major source of income, remains way down. Agriculture, on which so much of the population depends on for income, has suffered from poor weather conditions, input price inflation, and land disputes. Corruption, as always, remains a major problem. Indeed, governmental inefficiencies and a continuing lack of clarity as to who wields power have some observers worried that it’s merely back to business as usual in Kenya. Key concerns regarding land distribution, ethnic tensions, and the balance of power among the various tribes and levels of government are unresolved. Distrust reigns as Kenya recovers from the violence in which many citizens’ lives were upended as they were chased from their homes and farms. Troublingly, many of the displaced are in temporary camps near their burned-out homes and farms, in close proximity to the neighbors who pushed them out. Ethnic tensions remain one of the most serious underlying issues, especially between the Kalenjin tribe, which backed Odinga, and Kibaki’s Kikuyu tribe. (Previous blog posts discuss the election results and Kenya’s intricate web of ethnic groups.)
Yet despite its challenges, Kenya is much better positioned than Zimbabwe to reap governance dividends from its version of a power-sharing government. For all its faults and uncertain future, Kenya’s economy is far more sophisticated and resilient than Zimbabwe’s and its political structures less ossified. Perhaps most important, it is not governed by a leader in power for so many years that he knows no other way of being.
Kenyan Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula, who helped negotiate the creation of Kenya’s ruling coalition, optimistically believes there are lessons for Zimbabwe from Kenya’s experiences. Among other things, Wetangula suggests the parties find a way to establish trust; place the interests of the country above individual interests; and find a way to placate and de-politicize the army. Whether this list is applicable in Harare’s irrational policymaking environment is a different question. Mugabe is a master of manipulating Zimbabwe’s political system to his benefit, and many previous international efforts have resulted in little change. He has co-opted opposition leaders before; while achieving the same thing with Tsvangirai seems implausible, the ZANU-PF might try to succeed Mugabe with one of its own to avoid a reckoning with the consequences of its misdeeds. Thus, it is crucial that in any power-sharing deal, the opposition led by the MDC receive real power and the army must be convinced to stand pat. In both countries, it seems that integral resolutions are being postponed in the name of stability. Time will tell whether this is the recipe for gradual improvement or will simply lead to a new era of pressure growing ever-higher under the surface.
