Photo Credit: Flickr user United Nations Development Programme
By Daniel P. Erikson, Inter-American Dialogue
Despite its longstanding reputation as a governance basket case, one of the many tragic elements of the Haitian earthquake is the fact that the country had shown nascent but concrete signs of beginning to address its severe democratic governance deficits. In this post, Countries at the Crossroads Haiti chapter author Dan Erikson of the Inter-American Dialogue notes that it will take tremendous effort by Haitians and the international community to avoid a political power vacuum and governance regression as the official end of President Rene Preval’s term in office approaches.When Haiti was struck by a devastating earthquake on Jan. 12, the immediate international relief effort rightly focused on meeting urgent humanitarian needs, but this should not eclipse the larger need to strengthen Haiti’s political institutions and lay the groundwork for democratic elections. Unless the U.S. and its allies adopt a proactive role, Haiti’s fragmented political landscape threatens to deteriorate into a political vacuum that will compound the current crisis.
Indeed, the earthquake and its aftermath have severely jeopardized the slow but steady climb out of the political and economic abyss that Haiti had witnessed prior to the latest crisis. During an interview in mid-February, Haitian Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive signaled that the emergence of political divisiveness in Haiti threatens to undermine future progress: “You have the feeling that everyone is trying to do his little part and accuse the other one of not doing his part ... Everyone is trying to create conflict when we have the same enemy right now: it’s misery, it’s disaster.” Bellerive is now sounding the alarm: the earthquake may unleash new political forces that will jeopardize the ability of Haitian leaders to govern.
The current president of Haiti, Rene Préval, is nearing the end of his presidential term and once the Haitian parliament expires, he will be left to rule by decree in a country virtually devoid of institutions. There is no obvious successor to Préval, although Haiti has no shortage of aspirants, judging by the 34 candidates who sought the top job in the 2006 elections. One wildcard lurks in South Africa, where controversial former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide is undoubtedly weighing whether he retains enough support in Haiti to launch an effort to return.
In 2010, the Haitian government will need to work actively with key partners to prevent the emergence of a political vacuum that would hamper the international community’s ability to address the country’s brutal poverty and gaping inequality. The Obama administration could make a positive contribution to democratic governance and the rule of law in Haiti by using its leverage, both in Haiti and with the broader international community, in order to facilitate timely elections and reinvigorating efforts to create a solid development path for the country. If the Haitian earthquake is followed by a political unraveling, then the efforts to promote democratic governance in Haiti will be dealt another tragic setback.
